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Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Geraint Thomas – it’s a lineup that a race director would dream about.
Well, Javier Guillén’s dream will come true when the Vuelta a España rumbles out of Barcelona on Saturday.
Three reigning grand tour champions and a cavalcade of GC talent will roll down the start ramp for the Vuelta’s opening TTT this weekend.
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With the likes of João Almeida, Sepp Kuss, Enric Mas, and rising sensation Juan Ayuso also on the start sheet, this year’s Spanish tour will be the most stacked three-weeker of the season.
So who gets top billing for this blockbuster edition of the Vuelta a España?
Here’s Velo’s not-so-expert ranking of the GC contenders:
- Five tapas: Primož Roglič
- Four tapas: Jonas Vingegaard
- Three tapas: Remco Evenepoel, Geraint Thomas
- Two tapas: Juan Ayuso, João Almeida, Enric Mas
- One tapa: Alexander Vlasov, Eddie Dunbar, Thymen Arensman, Mikel Landa
- A handful of olives: Sepp Kuss, Jay Vine, Romain Bardet, Sergio Higuita, Damiano Caruso, Santiago Buitrago
Five tapas: Primož Roglič
Greatest Vuelta winner’s photo ever? We say yes.
Not Remco, not “Vingo”, but triple-maillot rojo “Rogo” gets five-star billing for this Vuelta a España.
The stats say it all. He’s won every Vuelta a España he finished, has swept all the stage races he started this season, and will land into Barcelona hot off the back of a Vuelta a Bugos tune-up he seemed to win riding in zone two.
Roglič will pedal into the gran salida free of injury or the weight of Tour de France fatigue for the first time since 2019. And as Burgos proved, he didn’t slow down in his long layoff since he won the Giro d’Italia.
Jumbo-Visma will likely “let the road decide” who leads the team out of Roglič and his Tour de France-winning sidekick Jonas Vingegaard.
GC opportunities on both stages 2 and 3 mean Roglič might rise up the team’s pecking order early on if Vingegaard is still brushing away any TdF cobwebs.
It may seem an oversight to put Roglič ahead of Vingegaard in the ranking – after all, the Dane is the GC racer to beat right now. Just look at his seven-minute decimation of Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de France for proof.
But the 26-year-old has never doubled two grand tours and enters unchartered waters in his first Tour-Vuelta expedition. The five-week turnaround and stacked start-list might prove too far for Vingegaard at this Vuelta.
And what of Evenepoel?
Even Soudal Quick-Step boss Patrick Lefevere will admit that while Evenepoel is the brash new powerhouse of the WorldTour, the “Wolfpack” isn’t exactly a snarling horde of GC racers.
Soudal Quick-Step supported Evenepoel without many mishaps to his Vuelta victory last summer and guided him through the Giro d’Italia no problem. But it’s no Jumbo-Visma. Quick-Step doesn’t have the same grand tour knowledge in the backroom, or the brawn in the boiler room.
Evenepoel is up against it in his title defense.
Four tapas: Jonas Vingegaard
There was no holding Vingegaard’s wheel at the 2023 Tour de France. (Photo: CHRISTINE POUJOULAT/AFP via Getty Images)
Jonas Vingegaard didn’t just win the Tour de France last month, he blew it apart.
If Vingegaard holds the form that won him a second maillot jaune, the 26-year-old could gain as much as two minutes over his rivals in the 26km ITT (he put 1:38 into Pogačar over 22km at the Tour) and leave them choking on his fumes in the race’s five special-category climbs.
But the question of Vingegaard’s recovery in the five weeks between the Tour’s Paris finale and the Vuelta’s Barcelona opener remains.
Jumbo-Visma has steered Roglič through Tour-Vuelta doubles a handful of times, but not every rider is the same. That hint of doubt is the only reason why “The Iceman” Dane doesn’t share top billing alongside Roglič.
Three tapas: Remco Evenepoel, Geraint Thomas
If Jumbo-Visma doesn’t win, it could well be one of Evenepoel or Thomas. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)
Like Vingegaard, Evenepoel is on course to gain a lot in the stage 10 race against the clock.
He gained two minutes over Geraint Thomas and three over João Almeida when he blasted into the time trial stripes at road worlds – albeit over a course twice the length of the Vuelta’s Valladolid stage.
Nonetheless, Evenepoel will make good gains in the time trial and at least limit his losses in the mountains.
However, there’s the possibility Quick-Step will be swatted aside by Jumbo-Visma like Richard Plugge waves a lazy fly away from his mayo-loaded frites.
Team strength won’t determine who wins the final red jersey, but it will certainly play a role.
And Thomas, the perennial grand tour dark horse? He’s a full 14 years older than the “little bastard” – that is his nickname for Evenepoel, but he’s not slowing down in his old age.
Thomas finished in the top four of the past five grand tours he started, and were it not for the heartbreaker final time trial of the Giro d’Italia, would be one of the few active riders with two three-week victories on his palmarès.
Of all the riders that could stun Evenepoel and Jumbo-Visma, it’s “G”.
Two tapas: Juan Ayuso, João Almeida, Enric Mas
Spanish sensation Ayuso climbed to third overall and wore the youth jersey on behalf of Evenepoel on his grand tour debut last year. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)
Juan Ayuso, João Almeida, and Enric Mas should all feature in the race for the podium. But these three are only likely to finish on one of Madrid’s three steps if one of the Vuelta’s “big four” suffers an unlikely disaster.
Ayuso and Almeida combined well for third and sixth overall at last year’s Vuelta and will likely make life very difficult for Remco Evenepoel, Geraint Thomas, and Jumbo-Visma.
Almeida is always on the fringes of every stage race he completes but suffers from racing against one-of-a-generation riders like Evenepoel or Vingegaard.
In the longer term, Ayuso could become one of those generational talents, but his first three-week victory will have to wait. The 20-year-old has only raced one grand tour so far and lost the start of his season to tendinitis.
Look to 2024 and beyond for Spain’s budding superstar.
Ayuso’s countryman Mas is the last of the two-tapa triumvirate.
Movistar’s captain is one of the most consistent GC racers of the peloton and finished second three times at the Vuelta.
The 28-year-old crashed on the very opening stage of this summer’s Tour de France and slammed his shoulder, but should have had ample time to train back to his typical “always-in-the-frame” grand tour form.
One tapa: Alexander Vlasov, Mikel Landa, Eddie Dunbar, Thymen Arensman
Dunbar climbed with the best across three weeks at the Giro. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)
All four of Alexander Vlasov, Mikel Landa, Eddie Dunbar, and Thymen Arensman have shown they can hit into the top-1o of a grand tour.
Vlasov has the explosiveness and aggression to match riders like Evenepoel, Vingegaard and Roglič, and was impressive racing against the Slovenian at Vuelta a Burgos.
The Russian twice finished in the top-five of a grand tour, and can be great. But he struggles to finish races. He’s DNF’d three of his six grand tour starts and hasn’t raced much since he fell sick and abandoned the Giro d’Italia.
Vlasov always rides into grand tours as something of a wildcard. And the story’s the same for this Vuelta.
Dunbar and Arensman could win the Vuelta a España one day, but it won’t be this September 17.
Both the Irishman and the Dutchman were impressive at the Giro d’Italia, but let’s face it – they’re unlikely to be hanging out in the podium places alongside Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Roglič a few weeks from now.
Landa is by far the most experienced of the “one tapa” quartet – in fact, with 19 grand tour starts, he’s the veritable veteran of the GC pack.
And while the Basque has landed into the top-seven of a grand tour seven times before, he’s gone on a low simmer this summer and will likely suffer against Jumbo-Visma, Evenepoel et al in Spain. Landa finished a lowly 19th at the Tour de France and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him off the back again at his home tour.
A handful of olives: Sepp Kuss, Jay Vine, Romain Bardet, Sergio Higuita, Santiago Buitrago, Damiano Caruso
Super-climber Sepp is back for his third grand tour of the season. (Photo: Getty)
Last up are the superdomestiques, stage-hunters, and top-10 chasers.
It’s almost inevitable Sepp Kuss, Jay Vine, Sergio Higuita, Romain Bardet, Damiano Caruso, and Santiago Buitrago will see headlines at this year’s Vuelta.
Whether it’s race-winning pulls, KoM raids, or dazzling stage wins, this super six will animate the race. And for Bardet, Kuss and Buitrago in particular, it’s also very likely they’ll land up somewhere in the top-15 of GC.
Just don’t expect to see any of these five crack the top five.