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Some 277km, 3,570m ascent, and a crazy number of corners will decide who wins gold Sunday at the men’s road race of the UCI Cycling World Championships.
“It’s an unusual course, it’s very different,” French coach Thomas Voeckler told L’Equipe. “There are 48 corners per lap, that’s almost 500 in total, just in the second part of the race.”
Will the blockbuster Belgian team rampage to a second-straight rainbow jersey in the Glasgow kermesse? Or can superstars like Mathieu van der Poel or Tadej Pogačar disrupt the Belgian bloc?
And what of outsiders like USA’s Neilson Powless or 2019 world champion Mads Pedersen?
Here’s Velo‘s not-so-expert ranking of the rainbow jersey contenders:
- Five stripes: Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel
- Four stripes: Wout van Aert
- Three stripes: Tadej Pogačar, Mads Pedersen, Neilson Powless, Michal Kwiatkowski
- Two stripes: Christophe Laporte, Julian Alaphilippe, Dylan van Baarle, Kasper Asgreen, Ben Healy, Jasper Philipsen, Michael Matthews, Alberto Bettiol, Fred Wright
- One stripe: Almost everyone else
Let’s dive in:
Five stripes:
Evenepoel is a predictable choice, but it’s hard to look past the defending world champ. (Photo: Con Chronis/Getty Images)
Remco Evenepoel and Mathieu van der Poel share top billing for the 2023 rainbow jersey in a cross-border clash of the titans.
Evenepoel blazes into his title defense hot off the back of a – for him – rare sprint victory at Clásica San Sebastián that showed he’s gotten even faster over the summer.
The young “big” of Belgian cycling and bib no.1 has been shouting from the rooftops of his intent to double-up and will be the first card Team Belgium plays out of its fistful of aces.
Evenepoel has got the form, he’s got the confidence, he’s got the backing – he’s just got to convert.
Van der Poel rode a contrastingly under-the-radar route toward “Super Worlds”.
The Dutch ace didn’t see much airtime at the Tour de France while he quietly laid the groundwork for his road-MTB world title push. Although Van der Poel wasn’t blitzing breakaways like usual, he saw some valuable training load with massive sprint pulls for Jasper Philipsen and his first ride through a full 21 TdF stages.
Van der Poel mastered the monuments this spring and could be bubbling toward a huge second peak of his 2023 season.
He bonked out in Yorkshire and was booted into a police cell in Wollongong. 2023 could finally be Van der Poel’s year.
Four stripes:
Pro cycling’s greatest rivals sit right near the top of the ranking for Saturday’s race. (Photo: AVID STOCKMAN/BELGA/AFP via Getty Images)
Sorry Wout, you’re on your own in the second tier.
Wout van Aert didn’t win a stage at the Tour de France but showed all the form he needs to win a coveted first road rainbow jersey. Like last year, “WvA” ruled over all terrain and was crucial in delivering Jonas Vingegaard toward his yellow jersey defense.
The classics dynamic of the Glasgow course and the possibility for Flandrien conditions Sunday should play perfect for Van Aert’s multi-faceted skillset.
Yet Belgium’s multi-rider play could prove a problem.
Remco Evenepoel will likely get the green light to move first and, like last year in Wollongong, the young “wolf” might pre-empt Wout’s own attack.
And if the race ends up coming back together, there’s always the chance Belgium’s versatile speedster Jasper Philipsen could be there. Judging by Philipsen’s form at the Tour de France, even Van Aert would struggle to beat his fast-finishing compatriot.
Three stripes:
Powless impressed all season and will have a strong U.S. team for support. (Photo: Getty)
Tadej Pogačar, Mads Pedersen, Neilson Powless, and Michal Kwiatkowski are just inches from the wheels of Glasgow’s “big three”.
All four are riding a wave of hot Tour de France form and will breeze into road worlds free of the pressure that burdens their Belgian and Dutch rivals.
Pogačar will see anything so soon after he suffered under the Jumbo-Visma hammer at the Tour de France as a bonus. Without Primož Roglič or Matej Mohorič for support, Pogačar will be forced to follow wheels in Glasgow. But Pogačar is Pogačar – that kid can surprise, no matter what scenario.
Former champions Pedersen and Kwiatkowski are both riding out of the best Tours de France of their careers.
“Kwiato” won’t have much team support Sunday but showed with his Tour stage win he doesn’t need wingmen.
Pedersen is in the opposite situation with his powerhouse Danish squad. The 2019 rainbow jersey showed stellar climber legs through the end of the Tour de France, and the lumps and bumps of Glasgow shouldn’t pose the punchy powerhouse a problem.
And Powless?
The Californian should roll into road worlds with confidence through the roof. A bombastic classics season and 12 days in the polka dots of the Tour de France make the 26-year-old the USA’s best chance at a road rainbow jersey in a decade.
Two stripes:
Laporte and Matthews went two-three in the sprint for the podium last year. (Photo: Con Chronis/Getty Images)
The two-stripe selection is packed out with racers with the pedigree and potential for rainbow bands. But all of them will need the race to play their way in order for it to happen.
Faster finishers Jasper Philipsen and Christophe Laporte will be gambling on the outside chance of a group sprint.
Breakaway aces Fred Wright, Ben Healy, and Alberto Bettiol will want to get into early moves but might suffer the close leash of dominator teams like Belgium or the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, the recently back-to-form Julian Alaphilippe and Kasper Asgreen will be counting on strong team support and the force of will in the hopes of a true underdog rainbow jersey.
World championships road races can be wildly unpredictable. Alaphilippe, Bettiol, Laporte and the rest will hoping for a rainbow surprise Sunday.
One stripe:
There’s always opportunity for a total surprise at the worlds . (Photo: Con Chronis/Getty Images)
Races as hard as road worlds always throw the door wide open. Any rider capable of preserving watts and steering clear of catastrophe can find themself sitting in the front group deep into the sixth hour of the race.
The complicated finish circuit and the possibility for sketchy conditions Sunday means even top favorites might not finish the race – and that even the darkest of horses can end up in the winner’s circle and wearing a gold medal.