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OK, so we all know who are the top favorites for this year’s Tour de France. Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar lead the yellow jersey forecasts from every pundit.
But who are the riders most likely to be able to disrupt that duopoly?
This year’s Tour de France is set to be loaded with stage-racing talent for one of the strongest GC fields in years.
Even in the absence of Primož Roglič, Remco Evenepoel, and Geraint Thomas, three former grand tour winners will toe the line alongside Pogačar and Vingegaard at the July 1 grand départ.
Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz, and Egan Bernal headline the podium chasers of this year’s Tour, and riders like Ben O’Connor, Enric Mas, and Romain Bardet are only inches below them.
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So, who of the GC “second tier” could level with Pogačar and Vingegaard at the upcoming Tour de France? Now the tune-up racing at the Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse is done, it’s time to take a look:
Hindley and O’Connor: The Aussies comin’ in hot
O’Connor rode hot through his TdF tuneup at the Dauphiné. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
Could 2023 see an Australian win the yellow jersey for the first time since Cadel Evans in 2011?
If Pogačar and Vingegaard dominate as hard as expected, probably not. But based on what we saw at the Critérium du Dauphiné, Aussie racers look very well-placed to land a spot on the Tour de France podium.
Ben O’Connor (Ag2r-Citroën) and Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) finished third and fourth respectively at the Dauphiné and will be hoping to carry that form into the Tour de France.
O’Connor came good right on time in his eight-day tune-up in France. His quiet start to the season converted to a standout TT and swaggering ride through the mountains that showed he can match the attacking verve styled-out by riders like Pogačar and Vingegaard.
O’Connor proved before he can do big things at the Tour, and he currently looks on track for at least equalling his fourth-place finish of 2021.
After six grand tour starts and a pink jersey at the Giro d’Italia, Hindley finally sees his Tour de France debut this summer. The 27-year-old will have the growing power of Bora-Hansgrohe’s GC collective behind him and the momentum of an O’Connor-esque mid-summer ascent in form.
The Dauphiné saw Hindley rediscover the legs that won him the maglia rosa, and although he’s yet to experience the frenzy of life at the Tour, his experience of recently winning a grand tour could carry him far next month in France.
Pinot, Bardet, Gaudu, and the weight of a nation
Can Pinot flame French hearts in his final Tour before retirement? (Photo: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
Sorry France, it seems unlikely that this summer will herald a first home maillot jaune since Bernard Hinault in 1985. But who knows, a French rider might whip the nation into a frenzy with a raid on one of the steps on the podium.
Romain Bardet (Team DSM) and Thibaut Pinot (Groupama FDJ) will both carry confidence (and a lot of expectation) into this year’s Tour.
Pinot rode into the mountains jersey and hit the top-5 at the Giro d’Italia in a ride that impressed so much that his team totally pivoted on its plans by dropping sprinter Arnaud Démare in favor of the Vosges’ heartbreaker.
The retiring climber previously pivoted away from the Tour after he felt weighed down by pressure, and his mental outlook might prove as crucial as how well he’s recovered from his big three weeks in Italy. Whether Pinot chases stages rather than GC remains to be seen.
Bardet can’t ever be counted out, and was the last Frenchman to make the Tour’s top-three when he hit the bottom step in 2017.
Bardet was impressively attacking at the Tour de Suisse and will relish a parcours that favors him at this 2023 Tour. Team DSM always impresses with its under-the-radar racing and has quietly amassed a stack of young climbing talent. Will they help Bardet roll back the years to his 2016-2017 heyday? Maybe.
And David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)? Who knows where that guy’s at.
The 26-year-old was talk of the town when he went better than Vingegaard at Paris-Nice in the spring, but nosedived hard at the recent Dauphiné. He bled time in the time trial and went no better in the mountains a few days later.
Gaudu last year turned around a subpar Dauphiné when he rode to fourth at the Tour de France, so might do similar in the next six weeks.
How will Gaudu dovetail with Pinot? It’s got the makings of a Netflix episode all over it.
Mas, Carapaz, Landa, and uncertainties over the Spanish-speakers
Mas levele with Pogačar at Il Lombardia last autumn and is one of the most consistent GC racers in the bunch. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)
Will there be a Spanish accent mingling among the Slovenian and Danish tones at the press conferences of the Tour de France? It’s hard to call, because the Tour’s Spanish-speaking stars ride toward the Basque départ bubbling hot and cold.
Enric Mas (Movistar) is one of the most consistent GC racers in the peloton with top-six finishes in six of the eight last grand tours he started. The Spaniard took the racing to Pogačar and Evenepoel at the back-end of last year and simmered along nicely this spring.
Mas’ trajectory was however totally derailed at the Critérium du Dauphiné when he was doomed by a bout of dysentery. Movistar doesn’t seem too concerned the sickness will impact its leader’s hopes for the Tour, and if he’s healthy, expect the 28-year-old to be in the mix.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) stands alongside Mas as one of the few riders that could, on paper, muscle-in on the Pogačar-Vingegaar prizefight. But also like Mas, the Ecuadorian had a pretty dire Dauphiné.
It will be interesting to see what EF Education-EasyPost does with its newly signed star next month. Team boss Jonathan Vaughters indicated stage hunting could be on the cards rather than classification racing, and it’s easy to imagine Carapaz pivoting whichever way the opening stages in the Basque Country point him.
If that direction is toward a GC quest, the former Giro d’Italia winner has the explosiveness and know-how to go far.
Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) is one of the most experienced classification racers of the Tour’s “second tier” and rode strong through spring. Yet something seemingly went wrong in early-summer, and the Basque barely showed his face at the Dauphiné in an untimely turn of form.
Landa admitted he didn’t have the best legs before the Dauphiné even rolled out and his team will be hoping he re-finds them for his home grand départ on July 1. If he does, the 33-year-old sure has the potential to level his career-best fourth-place finishes in Paris.
And last but maybe not least, it’s the Ineos Grenadiers trident of Daniel Martínez, Carlos Rodríguez, and Egan Bernal.
Martínez is the most likely leader of the three given his grand tour experience and early season victory at Volta ao Algarve. However, the 27-year-old has gone more off radar with every passing race since his February success, and hemorrhaged time in the final weekend of the recent Dauphiné.
Rodríguez finished the Dauphiné in far better shape than his more senior teammate, but he still seems way too raw to come even close to Pogačar and Vingegaard’s draft.
And Bernal? His selection is still not confirmed, and though he’s on an upward curve in this his comeback season, it’s far from likely he’ll see a fairytale return this summer to the yellow jersey he won in 2019.
Honorable mentions
Simon Yates won’t have raced for three months by the time he starts the Tour de France. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)
Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla), Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Sergio Higuita (Bora-Hansgrohe), Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-EasyPost), Mattias Skjelmose, Giulio Ciccone (both Trek Segafredo).